Recently, the customs released the import and export situation of pulp in the first seven months of this year. While pulp showed a decrease in the month-on-month and year-on-year, the amount of pulp imports showed an increasing trend. #Paper Cup Raw Materials Manufacturer

Corresponding to this, it is the status quo that pulp prices continue to grow to high levels. Recently, after two consecutive weak fluctuations, the price of pulp has returned to a high level again. As of August 8, the main futures price of pulp was 7,110 yuan/ton.

In the context of high pulp prices, paper companies have raised prices one after another. What’s more, the price of special paper has increased by more than 1,500 yuan/ton, setting a record. But despite this, the price increase effect of some paper types was not satisfactory, which also resulted in a decline in product gross profit and dragged down the performance of paper companies. #Paper Cup Fan Raw Material

Recently, many paper companies have disclosed that their performance forecasts have fallen sharply, with the largest decline of nearly 90%. When can the paper industry climb out of the trough? Some institutions predict that the industry will rely on the decline in pulp prices to achieve the reversal of its predicament. At the same time, as the supply chain improvement is expected to increase in the second half of the year, the long-suppressed demand pressure may fully manifest. #Pe Coated Paper Cup Raw Material

Pulp prices rise again

According to customs data, in July 2022, my country imported a total of 2.176 million tons of pulp, a month-on-month decrease of 7.48% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.37%; the import value was 1.7357 million US dollars; the average unit price was 797.66 US dollars / ton, a month-on-month increase of 4.44% , an increase of 2.03% year-on-year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume and value increased by -6.2% and 4.9% respectively compared with the same period of last year. #Paper Cup Stock Roll

The reporter noticed that the import volume of pulp has been declining for 4 consecutive months since April. The supply side of the pulp market continues to release tight news, so many people in the industry are also worried about whether the pulp price will continue to rise.

In the first half of this year, pulp prices fluctuated upwards, then fluctuated sideways at high levels, and then fluctuated back down. From the perspective of the reasons, in the first quarter, the strike of the Finnish paper workers’ union ignited the market, and many foreign pulp mills were affected by energy shortages and logistics constraints, and the supply was greatly reduced. In the second quarter, with the fermentation of the situation in Ukraine, the overall pulp price showed a high and volatile trend. #Paper Cup Raw Material Design

However, according to the forecasts of many institutions, under the influence of the current sluggish downstream demand and the insufficient start-up of paper companies, the support for the high-level operation of pulp prices is limited.

Shenyin Wanguo Futures pointed out that the market outlook for pulp is not expected to be too optimistic. In August, the external quotations continued to be firm. Under the support of import costs and some tight spot supply, the pulp contract in the near-month period performed strongly. However, with the basis difference being repaired, the continued upside may be limited. The domestic downstream has a low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, the profit of finished paper remains at a very low level, and the inventory of base paper is under great pressure. In the context of weak macro, the market outlook for pulp is not expected to be too optimistic, and the demand for paper in Europe and the United States has released a weak signal. #Paper Cup Raw Material Roll

Longzhong Consulting also said that the trend of pulp downstream base paper manufacturers has been relatively sluggish recently. Among them, the white cardboard market has been in a downward trend in the past month. The average price fell by more than 200 yuan / ton in the month, and the recent start of construction has basically maintained a low-medium level, which limited the trend of pulp prices. In addition, although the household paper and cultural paper markets have successively issued price increase letters, most of them are mainly to stabilize the market price trend, and the implementation situation needs to be verified. In addition, the base paper manufacturers have a slightly average demand for high-priced pulp, and have limited support for high pulp prices. The agency predicts that the price of pulp will fluctuate widely in the short-term range, and the price of pulp will remain at 6900-7300 yuan / ton.